[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 22 10:30:22 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 21 January. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 22-24 January. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 21 January, the solar wind speed gradually declined from
~~340 km/s to ~300 km. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF
(Bt) was mostly steady near 4 nT. The north-south component of
IMF (Bz) fluctuated between between -3 to 3 nT for most of the
UT day. The solar wind is expected to be remain near nominal
conditions today (UT day 22 January). From late UT day 23 January,
the solar wind is expected to enhance due to the anticipated
arrival of high speed streams (HSS) associated with a recurrent
positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. This coronal hole
during the previous solar rotation caused daily average winds
of up to ~500 km/s. Similar to slightly weaker effects are expected
in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11010111
Cocos Island 1 01110010
Darwin 3 20110112
Townsville 2 21011101
Learmonth 3 22010112
Alice Springs 1 11010101
Culgoora 1 11010110
Gingin 2 10110112
Canberra 1 11010000
Launceston 3 11111111
Hobart 1 11011100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Casey 7 23321112
Mawson 19 33231155
Davis 10 22342122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 7 Quiet
23 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
24 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January and
is current for 23 Jan only. Quiet geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 21 January. Quiet
to Active conditions were observed in the Antarctic regions.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet on UT day
22 January, then may increase to Unsettled to Active levels on
UT day 23 January due the effects of the CIR and subsequent HSS
associated with a recurrent coronal hole. Isolated minor storms
are also possible on 23 January. UT day 24 January is expected
to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 21 January, there were MUF depressions over
the Southern high latitude regions compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Similar HF propagation conditions are expected for today,
UT day 22 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan -35 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 21 January, MUFs were moderately depressed
to mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian region.
Near predicted to moderately depressed MUFs are expected for
today (UT day 22 January), as a consequence of very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun. Slightly stronger depressions
are expected on UT day 23 January due to the forecasted geomagnetic
activity associated with the approaching coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 30900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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