[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 January 19 issued 2331 UT on 20 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 21 10:31:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 20 January. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 21-23 January. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 20 January, the solar wind speed started at around 370 km/s,
then gradually decreased to around 340 km/s, with a short elevated
period reaching 385 km/s at 20/1832 UT. During the last 24 hours,
the total IMF (Bt) fluctuated between 2 to 4 nT for most of the
day, then had a small increase after 20/1800 UT and is currently
fluctuating around 5 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz)
fluctuated between between -4 to 3 nT for most of the UT day.
The solar wind is expected to be near nominal conditions on UT
days 21-22 January, then it is expected to become enhanced either
late on UT day 22 January or on 23 January due to the effects
of a recurrent positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11001101
Cocos Island 1 21000100
Darwin 3 21011201
Townsville 4 11012212
Learmonth 3 21102201
Alice Springs 2 11001201
Culgoora 2 21001111
Gingin 2 11002101
Canberra 1 11001101
Launceston 4 12112111
Hobart 3 12102101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11002100
Casey 11 34321222
Mawson 17 53112225
Davis 11 23313332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0002 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 4 Quiet
22 Jan 7 Quiet, Unsettled to Active possible late in the
day
23 Jan 25 Unsettled to Active, isolated Minor Storm periods
possible
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20 January. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled conditions
were observed in the Antarctic regions, with isolated Active
to Minor Storm periods. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be
mainly Quiet on UT days 21-22 January, then may increase to Unsettled
to Active levels late on UT day 22 January due the effects of
a recurrent coronal hole. UT day 23 January is expected to be
mainly Unsettled to Active with isolated Minor Storm periods
possible due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions likely for the Southern
Hemisphere over the next 2 days. MUFs near predicted monthly
values or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF
degradations are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun. HF conditions may become further degraded
on UT day 23 January due to expected geomagnetic activity caused
by coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
22 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 20 January, the Australian and Antarctic regions
experienced Mild MUF depressions, while the Cocos Island region
had Moderate MUF depressions during the local day and Mild MUF
depressions during the local night. Sporadic E layers were observed
across all regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support are
expected for the next 2 UT days, 21-22 January, with MUFs either
near predicted monthly values or mildly to moderately depressed
due to continued low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
MUFs may be closer to near predicted monthly values on UT day
23 January due to expected geomagnetic activity caused by coronal
hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 60700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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