[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 January 19 issued 2342 UT on 19 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 20 10:42:51 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 19 January. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 20-22 January. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 19 January, the solar wind speed started at around 420 km/s,
then gradually decreased, currently around 370 km/s. During the
last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) fluctuated between 2 to 4 nT.
The north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between between
-4 to 3 nT for most of the UT day, but has had an extended southward
period starting at 19/1414 UT, fluctuating between -4 to 0 nT,
mainly around -2 nT. The solar wind is expected to be near nominal
conditions on UT days 20-22 January, but may become enhanced
late on UT day 22 January due to the effects of a recurrent positive
polarity equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11110112
Cocos Island 2 10010112
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 3 11110112
Learmonth 4 11110123
Alice Springs 3 11110112
Culgoora 3 10120112
Gingin 3 10010123
Canberra 2 00120012
Launceston 4 11220122
Hobart 3 11120112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 00120001
Casey 13 34431122
Mawson 13 22230344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2102 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 6 Quiet, with possible Unsettled periods
21 Jan 4 Quiet
22 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19 January. Quiet to Active conditions were
observed in the Antarctic regions. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mainly Quiet, with possible isolated Unsettled periods,
on UT Day 20 January, then mainly Quiet on UT days, 21-22 January.
Geomagnetic activity may increase to Unsettled to Active levels
late on UT day 22 January if the solar wind becomes enhanced
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to Moderate MUF depressions likely for the Southern
Hemisphere over the next 3 days. MUFs near predicted monthly
values or occasional enhancements for Northern Hemisphere. MUF
degradations are a consequence of the very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan -38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
22 Jan -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 19 January, MUFs experienced Mild to Moderate
depressions during the local night and Severe depressions during
the local day across the Island and Northern Australian regions.
Mild to Moderate MUF depressions were experienced in the Southern
Australian region and Mild depressions in the Antarctic region
over the UT day. Sporadic E layers were observed across all regions.
Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next
3 days with MUFs either near predicted monthly values or mildly
to moderately depressed due to continued low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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