[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 7 10:30:22 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 6 January. The active
region 2732 has produced several flares, the largest one was
C1.6. Currently this region is located near the western limb
of the visible solar disc. During the next three UT days, 7-9
January, solar activity is expected to be very low with a remote
chance for C-class flares for 7 January only. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The
solar wind speed observed during the last 24 hours was at moderately
enhanced levels near 500 km/s. This is in response to high speed
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent trans-equatorial
coronal hole. During this period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between
4 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between -5 nT and +5 nT. During the next UT day, 7 January, the
solar wind speed is expected to remain near moderately elevated
levels as the effects of the coronal hole persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22212232
Darwin 13 24401143
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 7 12222232
Alice Springs 6 22212222
Culgoora 6 22212222
Canberra 3 01212111
Launceston 8 22222232
Hobart 7 12212232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Mawson 21 34323453
Davis 21 34433352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3423 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan 7 Quiet
09 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 6 January. Quiet
to minor storm levels were observed in Antarctica. During the
next UT day, 7 January, the global geomagnetic activity is expected
to vary mostly between quiet and unsettled levels with a small
chance for isolated active periods. The elevated geomagnetic
activity is expected because the Earth is currently under the
influence of high speed solar wind streams associated with the
recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. Then the geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline to quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are possible for the
next UT day, 7 January, as a consequence of the recent increase
in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan -32 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
08 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
09 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: On 6 January, MUFs varied mostly between near predicted
monthly levels and moderately depressed levels. Strong Sporadic
E occurrences were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica.
Moderate depressions are likely on 7 January due to the recent
increase in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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