[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 7 10:30:22 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jan             08 Jan             09 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 6 January. The active 
region 2732 has produced several flares, the largest one was 
C1.6. Currently this region is located near the western limb 
of the visible solar disc. During the next three UT days, 7-9 
January, solar activity is expected to be very low with a remote 
chance for C-class flares for 7 January only. No Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The 
solar wind speed observed during the last 24 hours was at moderately 
enhanced levels near 500 km/s. This is in response to high speed 
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent trans-equatorial 
coronal hole. During this period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 
4 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated 
between -5 nT and +5 nT. During the next UT day, 7 January, the 
solar wind speed is expected to remain near moderately elevated 
levels as the effects of the coronal hole persist.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22212232
      Darwin              13   24401143
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            7   12222232
      Alice Springs        6   22212222
      Culgoora             6   22212222
      Canberra             3   01212111
      Launceston           8   22222232
      Hobart               7   12212232    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
      Mawson              21   34323453
      Davis               21   34433352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3423 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan     7    Quiet
09 Jan     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on UT day 6 January. Quiet 
to minor storm levels were observed in Antarctica. During the 
next UT day, 7 January, the global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to vary mostly between quiet and unsettled levels with a small 
chance for isolated active periods. The elevated geomagnetic 
activity is expected because the Earth is currently under the 
influence of high speed solar wind streams associated with the 
recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. Then the geomagnetic 
activity is expected to decline to quiet levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
09 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are possible for the 
next UT day, 7 January, as a consequence of the recent increase 
in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of ionising 
radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jan   -29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -32
Jan      -12
Feb      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jan   -32    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
08 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
09 Jan   -30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%

COMMENT: On 6 January, MUFs varied mostly between near predicted 
monthly levels and moderately depressed levels. Strong Sporadic 
E occurrences were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. 
Moderate depressions are likely on 7 January due to the recent 
increase in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels 
of ionising radiation from the Sun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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