[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 January 19 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 6 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 5 January. There
is currently one sunspot region on the visible solar disc, AR
2732, which is located near the west limb of the visible solar
disk. During the next three UT days, 6-8 January, solar activity
is expected to remain mostly very low with a remote chance for
C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed observed during the
last 24 hours was near moderate level of 500 km/s. This is in
response to high speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent
trans-equatorial coronal hole. During this period the total IMF
(Bt) ranged between 4 nT and 12 nT and the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -8 nT and +8 nT. The two day outlook
(UT day 6-7 January) is for the solar wind to remain near these
moderately elevated levels as the effects of the coronal hole
persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 33222222
Cocos Island 7 322212--
Darwin 10 24411122
Townsville 10 33232222
Learmonth 11 33232322
Alice Springs 9 322321--
Culgoora 9 33222222
Gingin 9 332222--
Canberra 6 32222111
Launceston 14 43333322
Hobart 13 43333212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
Macquarie Island 16 332442--
Casey 42 566423--
Mawson 21 453323--
Davis 81 44549346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1012 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 5 January. Storm levels were
observed in Antarctica. During the next 2 UT days, 6-7 January,
the global geomagnetic activity is expected to vary mostly between
quiet and unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible
today, UT day 6 January. The predicted disturbed geomagnetic
activity is because the earth is currently under the influence
of moderately elevated solar wind speeds associated with the
recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions are possible for the
next 3 UT days, 6-8 January, as a consequence of the increase
in geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jan -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available .
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan -30 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On 5 January, MUFs varied mostly between near predicted
monthly levels and moderately depressed levels. Strong Sporadic
E occurrences were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica.
Depressions are likely on 6-7 January due to the increase in
geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 18.6 p/cc Temp: 34600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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