[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 January 19 issued 2351 UT on 07 Jan 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 8 10:51:26 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the 7th January. Recent
active region 2732 (N09W85) is due to rotate off the west limb
and there are currently no other regions on the visible solar
disc. LASCO C2 imagery captured a non-earth directed CME beginning
around 20UT 06Jan emerging from the east limb. The solar wind
speed (Vsw) has gradually declined over the last 24 hours due
to the waning influence of the current coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. Vsw was 537km/s at 00UT and is currently 464km/s
at the time of this report. The north-south component of IMF
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-4nT over the UT day. The solar wind
speed is expected to continue to decline to ambient levels over
the next 2-3 days. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22212202
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 6 32212202
Learmonth 6 22122212
Alice Springs 5 22212202
Culgoora 4 22212101
Gingin 6 22222212
Canberra 2 1111-101
Launceston 5 22222201
Hobart 5 22222101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Mawson 13 33233224
Davis 13 23333214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1321 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 7 Quiet
09 Jan 6 Quiet
10 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed in
the AUS/NZ region for 7th January. Mostly Unsettled with isolated
Active periods for Antarctic regions. Diminishing coronal hole
effects over the next 24 hours resulting in Quiet conditions
for the AUS/NZ regions and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for
Antarctic regions for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 7th January.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -32
Jan -12
Feb -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs observed for Equatorial, Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. MUFs
near predicted monthly value for Antarctic regions. Similar levels
of ionospheric support are expected for the next 2-3 days with
MUFs slowly approaching near predicted monthly values for all
regions due to continued low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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