[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 14 10:30:21 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 UT days,
14-16 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 13/2236 UT. On UT day 13 February,
the solar wind speed was gradually increasing from 380 km/s to
480 km/s. During the first half of the day the total IMF (Bt)
increased from 5 nT to 10 nT, then it decreased to its nominal
values 3-5 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in
the range +4/-8 nT. The most significant period of negative Bz
was observed from 1050 UT to 1140 UT, when Bz reached -8 nT.
During the next UT day, 14 February, the solar wind speed is
expected to be moderately enhanced due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 12243321
Cocos Island 6 12132221
Darwin 8 12232321
Townsville 10 22233322
Learmonth 10 12333321
Alice Springs 9 12233321
Culgoora 9 12233321
Gingin 13 22244322
Canberra 12 12343322
Launceston 19 23354422
Hobart 13 22343421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 24 12465411
Casey 25 45543323
Mawson 17 24443323
Davis 18 33544212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2200 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 11 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region and quiet to storm levels were observed
in Antarctica on UT day 13 February. On UT day 14 February, the
global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet
to unsettled levels with possible isolated active periods. The
geomagnetic activity enhancements are due to coronal hole effects.
Then the activity is expected to decrease gradually to mostly
quiet levels as the coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 13 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels. Mild to moderate depressions were observed
in Southern hemisphere, mostly during local day. Periods of mild
to moderate MUF enhancements were also observed in some low and
mid latitude areas. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in Southern hemisphere during
the next three UT days, 14-16 February, due to continued very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and the recent
rise in geomagnetic activity on UT day 13 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
15 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
16 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: On UT day 13 February, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values across Southern Australian region. In Northern
Australian region the HF propagation conditions were variable,
with both mild enhancements during local night and mild to moderate
depressions during local day. During the next three UT days,
14-16 February mild to moderate depressions are likely due to
continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun
and the recent increase in geomagnetic activity on UT day 13
February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 58500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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