[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 12 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 13 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 UT days,
13-15 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 12/2224 UT. On UT day 12 February,
the solar wind speed was varying near its nominal values, 340-420
km/s. During this period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 5
nT and 9 nT. The north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in
the range +7/-5 nT without significant periods of negative Bz.
During the next UT day, 13 February, the solar wind speed is
expected to vary between its background and moderately enhanced
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21111002
Cocos Island 2 20111001
Darwin 3 22111002
Townsville 5 21222012
Learmonth 3 21121002
Alice Springs 2 11111002
Culgoora 3 11111012
Gingin 3 21121002
Canberra 3 11112012
Launceston 6 -3212112
Hobart 3 11112002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 11002001
Casey 15 34433113
Mawson 12 34212214
Davis 15 34322105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1120 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12 February. An isolated active period was observed
in Antarctica. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to
stay at quiet to unsettled levels on UT days 13-15 February due
to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 12 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels. Mild to moderate depressions were observed
in Southern hemisphere, mostly during local day. Periods of mild
to moderate MUF enhancements were also observed in some low latitude
areas. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions may be observed in Southern hemisphere during the
next three UT days, 13-15 February, due to continued very low
levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and a possibility of
slight rise in geomagnetic activity on UT days 13 and 14 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
14 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
15 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: On UT day 12 February, MUFs were mostly depressed by
20-25% across Southern Australian region. Near predicted monthly
values and enhanced MUFs were observed in Northern Australian
region. Similar HF conditions are expected for the Aus/NZ regions
during the next three UT days, 13-15 February. Expected depressions
are due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from
the Sun and some possibility of slight rise in geomagnetic activity
on UT days 13 and 14 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 44800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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