[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 15 10:30:23 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 UT days,
15-17 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 14/1936 UT. On UT day 14 February,
the solar wind speed varied in the range 470-530 km/s, currently
near 480 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 1 nT to 6 nT. The
north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range +4/-5 nT
without significant periods of negative Bz. During the next UT
day, 15 February, the solar wind speed is expected to be mostly
enhanced due to coronal hole effects and gradually decreasing
on average to its nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 12231021
Cocos Island 3 21120021
Darwin 5 12231011
Townsville 5 12231021
Learmonth 6 22231021
Alice Springs 5 12231011
Culgoora 5 12231021
Gingin 6 22231021
Canberra 4 12230011
Launceston 9 23341021
Hobart 6 12240011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 12240010
Casey 16 34532122
Mawson 32 35543255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 2333 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb 7 Quiet
17 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region and quiet to minor storm levels were
seen in Antarctica on UT day 14 February. On UT day 15 February,
the global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at
quiet to unsettled levels. The geomagnetic activity enhancement
is due to coronal hole effects. Then the activity is expected
to decrease to quiet levels as the coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 14 February, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels. Mild to moderate depressions were observed
in Southern hemisphere, mostly during local day. Periods of mild
to moderate MUF enhancements were also observed in some low and
mid latitude areas. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in Southern hemisphere during
the next three UT days, 15-17 February, due to continued very
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and the recent
rise in geomagnetic activity on UT days 13-14 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
16 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
17 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: On UT day 14 February, MUFs were moderately depressed
across Southern Australian region. In Northern Australian region
MUFs were mostly enhanced. During the next three UT days, 15-17
February, mild to moderate depressions are likely due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and the recent
increase in geomagnetic activity on UT days 13-14 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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