[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 06 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 7 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 06 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
07-09 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 06/2224 UT. On UT day 05 February,
the solar wind speed gradually increased from nearly 340 km/s
to 470 km/s in response to coronal hole effect. During this period
the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 5 nT and 8 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied in the range +6/-7 nT. The solar
wind parameters may stay enhanced for the next three UT days
(07 to 09 February) first due to the effect of a small coronal
hole in the northern hemisphere and then due to the effect of
another large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere of the
solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Cocos Island 7 22222231
Darwin 6 21222222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22222222
Alice Springs 6 12222222
Gingin 8 22222232
Launceston 8 13232222
Hobart 6 12222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 15 12255112
Casey 21 35532233
Mawson 33 44233366
Davis 26 34344255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 3000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Feb 15 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible
09 Feb 15 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06 February. Global geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mainly at quiet to unsettled levels on UT day
07 February. Global geomagnetic activity may show some enhancements,
at times up to active levels, on UT days 08 and 09 February due
to the effect of a negative polarity coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere of the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
09 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: On UT day 06 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to mildly enhanced across low and mid latitude regions
with periods of minor MUF depressions in some high latitude regions.
Strong sporadic E layers were also observed. Minor to mild MUF
depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be observed
for the next three days (UT days 07 to 09 February) due to continued
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and possible
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels through this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
09 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: On UT day 06 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to mildly enhanced across most parts of Australian/NZ
regions with periods of minor MUF depressions in the Antarctic
region. Strong sporadic E layers were also observed. Minor to
mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be
observed in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days (UT days
07 to 09 February) due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun and possible enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels through this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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