[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 6 10:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 05 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
06-08 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 05/1054UT. On UT day 05 February, the
solar wind speed gradually declined from nearly 390 km/s to 320
km/s in response to the waning effect of the negative polarity
equatorial coronal hole. During this period the total IMF (Bt)
ranged between 3 nT and 8.5 nT and the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) varied in the range +4/-4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to continue to decline towards nominal levels through
UT day 6 February and stay at nominal levels on 7 February. Solar
wind stream may again start to get strengthened from UT day 8
February due to the effect of negative polarity coronal hole
in the southern hemisphere of the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 21100111
Cocos Island 1 11000200
Darwin 3 11100212
Townsville 3 21100112
Learmonth 3 22100220
Alice Springs 1 11100101
Gingin 2 21100210
Canberra 0 10100000
Launceston 3 21210111
Hobart 3 21210101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 01110000
Casey 12 34421221
Mawson 17 43212145
Davis 9 33322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0000 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 8 Mostly quiet, some unsettled periods possible
07 Feb 5 Quiet
08 Feb 12 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05 February. Global geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mainly at quiet levels on UT days 06 and 07 February
with some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 06 February
due to coronal hole effect. Global geomagnetic activity may show
some enhancements on UT day 08 February due to the effect of
another negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere
of the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 05 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to mildly depressed with periods of significant MUF depressions
in some low latitude areas. Strong sporadic E layers were also
observed. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric support are expected
mostly for the next 3 days (UT days 6 to 8 February) mainly due
to the continued low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb -18 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
07 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: On UT day 05 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to mildly depressed across most parts of Australian/NZ
regions with periods of significant MUF depressions in some northern
areas of this region. Strong sporadic E layers were also observed.
Nearly similar levels of ionospheric support in this regions
are expected mostly for the next 3 days (UT days 6 to 8 February)
mainly due to the continued low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 43500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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