[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 5 10:30:17 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 04 February. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 05-07 February. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 04 February, the solar wind speed gradually declined from
490 km/s to nearly 415 km/s in response to the waning effect
of the negative polarity equatorial coronal hole. During this
period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 3.5 nT and 6.5 nT and
the north-south component of IMF (Bz) stayed close to the normal
value until 0830 UT and then fluctuated in the range +4/-5 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline towards
nominal levels over the next 24 hours with occasional enhancements
due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 10012222
Cocos Island 2 10101121
Darwin 4 10112222
Townsville 6 11113222
Learmonth 5 11002232
Alice Springs 4 10012222
Gingin 5 10002233
Canberra 2 00002121
Launceston 6 10013322
Hobart 5 00013322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 00004411
Casey 12 33332133
Mawson 30 32113375
Davis 21 23323363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3420 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
06 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mainly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day, 04 February with isolated unsettled
periods. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly
quiet to unsettled with some possibility of isolated active periods
on 05 February due to coronal hole effects. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline gradually to unsettled and then
quiet levels through UT days 06-07 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
06 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 04 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to mildly depressed at all latitudes. Nearly similar levels
of ionospheric support are expected mostly for the next 3 UT
days (5 to 7 February) due to continued low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
07 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: On UT day 04 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to mildly depressed across Australian/NZ regions. Nearly
similar levels of ionospheric support in this regions are expected
mostly for the next 3 days (UT days 5 to 7 February) due to continued
low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 551 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 288000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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