[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 February 19 issued 2331 UT on 03 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 4 10:31:16 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 03 February. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 04-06 February. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 03 February, the solar wind speed declined from 620 km/s
to nearly 500 km/s in response to the waning effect of the negative
polarity equatorial coronal hole. During this period the total
IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 6 nT and the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to continue to decline towards its nominal level
over the next 24 hours as the effect of the coronal hole wanes
further. A slight enhancement in the solar wind speed may be
observed on 05- 06 February due another weak dispatched negative
polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet with isolated
Unsettled periods
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22212211
Cocos Island 4 22111210
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville 6 22212212
Learmonth 7 32212222
Alice Springs 6 22212212
Gingin 7 32212222
Canberra 2 21201100
Launceston 9 33312222
Hobart 6 22312211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 33303320
Casey 21 35533223
Mawson 32 55422455
Davis 40 34422666
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3322 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 7 Quiet
05 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance for isolated
Active periods
06 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mainly Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day, 03 February with isolated Unsettled periods.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet today, 04
February as coronal hole effects wane then may increase to Unsettled
levels with a chance for isolated Active periods on UT days 05-06
February if the solar wind becomes enhanced due to coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 03 February.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 03 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to slightly depressed at all latitudes. Sporadic E layers
were over some Australian ionosonde stations. Similar levels
of ionospheric support are expected for the next 24 hours due
to continued low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 561 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 292000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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