[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 3 10:30:22 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 02 February. The
Sun is currently spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low for the next 3 UT days, 03-05 February. No Earth directed
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph imagery. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed remained enhanced near
600 km/s under continued coronal hole influence. During this
period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 6 nT and the
north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-6 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced over the
next 24 hours as coronal hole effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 22333322
Cocos Island 10 22223422
Darwin 9 22223322
Townsville 12 33323322
Learmonth 14 23333432
Alice Springs 10 22233322
Gingin 14 32333432
Canberra 6 22222220
Launceston 17 33343432
Hobart 16 23343432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 24 33364431
Casey 30 46533433
Mawson 41 65443446
Davis 35 55542544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 1332 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active
periods.
04 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 02 February. Storm levels
were observed in Antarctica. This was in response to high-speed
solar wind streams associated with coronal hole. During the next
three UT days, 03-05, geomagnetic activity is expected to be
at Quiet to Unsettled levels. There is a chance for isolated
Active periods to occur today, 03 February because the solar
wind speed is still high.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed on 02 February.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 02 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to slightly depressed in the Southern Australian and the
Antarctic regions. MUFs experienced Moderate depressions during
the local day across Cocos Island. Sporadic E layers were over
some Australian ionosonde stations. Similar levels of ionospheric
support are expected for the next 24 hours due to continued low
levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and current disturbed
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 544 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 289000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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