[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 February 19 issued 2330 UT on 07 Feb 2019 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 8 10:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 07 February. The
Sun, as seen from the Earthside, is currently spotless. Solar
activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next 3 UT days,
08-10 February. No Earth directed CMEs were visible in the available
coronagraph imagery up to 07/2018 UT. On UT day 07 February,
the solar wind speed gradually decreased from nearly 450 km/s
to 400 km/s. During this period the total IMF (Bt) ranged between
3 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) varied
in the range +3.5/-3.5 nT. The solar wind parameters may stay
enhanced for the next three UT days (08 to 10 February) due to
the effect of a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere
of the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 2 10001102
Townsville 3 11111112
Learmonth 2 11101101
Alice Springs 1 00001101
Gingin 2 11001111
Launceston 3 11201202
Hobart 2 11101102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 11100101
Casey 15 34522222
Mawson 20 43212255
Davis 9 33322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1213 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
10 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07 February. Global geomagnetic activity may
show enhancements up to active levels, on UT days 08 and 09 February
due to the effect of a negative polarity coronal hole in the
southern hemisphere of the solar disk. Global geomagnetic activity
may then show a gradual decline to unsettled and quiet levels
through the UT day 10 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
09 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
10 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: On UT day 07 February, global MUFs were near monthly
predicted levels to mildly depressed. Strong sporadic E layers
were also observed. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed for the next three days (UT
days 08 to 10 February) due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun and possible enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels through this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Feb -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -27
Feb -12
Mar -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
09 Feb -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
10 Feb -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 07 February, MUFs were near monthly predicted
levels to mildly depressed across most parts of Australian/NZ
regions. Minor MUF depressions were observed in the Antarctic
region too. Strong sporadic E layers were also observed. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three days
(UT days 08 to 10 February) due to continued very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun and possible enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels through this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 78000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list