[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 29 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 30 10:31:27 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 29 Dec. There
are currently no sunspots visible in white light. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
30 Dec - 01 Jan. During 29 Dec, the solar wind speed was at its
background levels, varying in the range 290-320 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 4 nT. The north-south component
of IMF, Bz, varied between +3/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to remain mostly near its background levels for the
next three UT days, 30 Dec - 01 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 2 21101011
Learmonth 2 11011011
Alice Springs 1 11100011
Gingin 2 11111010
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 1 11110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Casey 9 34311121
Mawson 7 22111114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 5 Quiet
31 Dec 5 Quiet
01 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 29 Dec, geomagnetic activity was at quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
quiet to unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT days,
30 Dec - 01 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 30 Dec - 01 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly from near
predicted monthly to moderated depressed level for the Australian
region on UT day 29 Dec. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over
most Australian ionosonde sites. Similar MUF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 30 Dec - 01 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 37300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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