[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 28 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 29 10:31:25 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 28 Dec. There
are currently two active regions on the visible disk, Region
2753 located at S29W07 and Region 2754 located at N24W57. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 29-31 Dec. During 28 Dec, the solar wind speed was at
its background levels, varying in the range 320-380 km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and 4 nT. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied between +4/-2 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain mostly near its background levels
for the next three UT days, 29-31 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 0 01010000
Darwin 1 10100001
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 10100001
Gingin 0 10000001
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Casey 10 34321112
Mawson 6 22111123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1010 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 5 Quiet
30 Dec 5 Quiet
31 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 28 Dec, geomagnetic activity was at quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
quiet to unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT days,
29-31 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 29-31 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly from near
predicted monthly to moderated depressed level for the Australian
region on UT day 28 Dec. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over
all Australian sites. Similar MUF conditions are expected for
the next three UT days, 29-31 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 45400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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