[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 27 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 28 10:31:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 27 Dec. There
are currently two active regions on the visible disk, 2753 (S29E07)
and 2754 (N25W65). There are no spots visible in white light.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 28-30 Dec. During 27 Dec, the solar wind
speed was at its background levels, varying in the range 360-380
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 5 nT. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied between +3/-5 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain near its background levels during
UT days 29-30 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 21100000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 20110000
Townsville 2 21110001
Learmonth 2 21110100
Alice Springs 1 21100000
Gingin 2 21100010
Canberra 1 11100000
Hobart 2 12100010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 14 44432121
Mawson 5 22211221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2110 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 5 Quiet
29 Dec 5 Quiet
30 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 27 Dec, geomagnetic activity was at quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
quiet to active conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 28-30
Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 28-30 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 27 Dec. Mild MUF
depressions were observed in Niue Island region during local
day and local night and in Northern Australian region during
local night. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over all Australian
sites. For the next three UT days, 28-30 Dec, mostly near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected over the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 78300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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