[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 December 19 issued 2335 UT on 26 Dec 2019

Fri Dec 27 10:35:40 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT###corrected version####
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 26 Dec. There are currently 
two active regions on the visible disk, 2753(S29E28) and 2754(N25,W41). 
Region 2754 has faded while region 2753 is shrinking. Very Low 
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three days, 
27-29 Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available 
coronagraph imagery. During 26 Dec, the solar wind speed increased 
from its background levels to around 410 Km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) varied between 3 nT-9 nT. The north-south component of IMF, 
Bz, varied between +/-6 nT. This disturbance is due to anticipated 
weak coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed may remain slightly 
enhanced today 27 Dec, returning to background levels on 28-29 
Dec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   32101111
      Cocos Island         3   32100101
      Darwin               4   32101111
      Townsville           4   22211111
      Learmonth            7   42111212
      Alice Springs        4   32101101
      Gingin               5   42100111
      Canberra             3   22100111
      Hobart               4   32110111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   21110000
      Casey               17   45432122
      Mawson              16   33212245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0000 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Dec     5    Quiet
29 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 26 Dec, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
to Unsettled levels in the Australian region with an isolated 
Active period early UT day. The Antarctic region observed Quiet 
to Active conditions with an isolated Minor storm period. The 
increased geomagnetic activity is due the coronal hole effects. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet 
levels for the next three days, 27-29 Dec, with a chance of isolated 
Unsettled periods today, 27 Dec due to weak coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three days, 27-29 Dec.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Dec   -17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec   -20    Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec   -20    Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values for the Australian region on 26 Dec. Mild MUFs 
depressions observed at Niue Island region local day. Sporadic-E 
occurrences were seen over most sites. For the next three days, 
27-29 Dec, mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are expected over 
the Australian region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    30600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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