[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 December 19 issued 2353 UT on 30 Dec 2019

Tue Dec 31 10:53:14 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 071/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Dec             01 Jan             02 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   070/5              070/5              070/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 30 December. 
There are currently no sunspots visible from the earth side. 
No earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the 
next three UT days, 31 December - 02 Jan. During 30 December, 
the solar wind speed was at its background levels, varying in 
the range 290-310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT 
and 7 nT and the north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between 
+5/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near 
its background levels for the next three UT days, 31 December 
- 02 January with the possibility of slight rises on 31 December 
and 01 January due to the effects of a small coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Cocos Island         2   11110111
      Darwin               3   12111111
      Townsville           4   22111112
      Learmonth            4   21111212
      Alice Springs        2   11110111
      Gingin               2   11110111
      Canberra             1   01110101
      Hobart               2   11110101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
      Casey                8   23321212
      Mawson               6   22110232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg       003
           Planetary            004                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       001
           Planetary            001   0000 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Dec     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
01 Jan     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
02 Jan     4    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 30 December, geomagnetic activity was at quiet 
levels in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Isolated unsettled 
periods were also observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next 
three UT days, 31 December - 02 January with the possibility 
of isolated unsettled periods on UT days 31 December and 01 January.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly from near 
predicted monthly to moderated depressed level on UT day 30 December. 
Nearly similar MUF conditions may be expected for the next three 
UT days, 31 December - 02 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Dec   -24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan   -25    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan   -28    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly from near 
predicted monthly to moderated depressed level for the Australian 
region on UT day 30 December. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen 
over most Australian ionosonde sites. Nearly similar MUF conditions 
may be expected for the next three UT days, 31 December - 02 
January in the Australian regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 305 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    22000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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