[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 December 19 issued 2345 UT on 24 Dec 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 25 10:45:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 073/008
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 072/008 072/008 072/008
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 24 Dec. Two active regions
have emerged,one has been numbered as 2753(N29E46) and another
one in the NW quadrant(no number yet). Both regions are small
and inactive. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three days, 25-27 Dec. There is a chance of increased
solar activity over the next coming days due to new development.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery. During 24 Dec, the solar wind speed was near its background
levels, under 370 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT
and 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mainly
between +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mainly
at background to slightly enhanced levels for the next three
days, 25-27 Dec due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111100
Cocos Island 1 01010100
Darwin 1 10011101
Townsville 2 11111101
Learmonth 2 10111200
Alice Springs 2 11111100
Gingin 1 11010100
Canberra 1 11110000
Hobart 1 11110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 10100000
Casey 12 44332101
Mawson 8 41122103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 002
Planetary 002
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 002
Planetary 002 0101 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels for the Australian
region on 24 Dec. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Active
levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 25-27 Dec, with a chance
of isolated Unsettled periods due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed compared
to the monthly predicted levels for the next three days, 25-27
Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to mildly depressed for the Australian region
on 24 Dec. Moderate MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island
region local day and night. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen
over most sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected
for the next three UT days, 25-27 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 40600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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