[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 25 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 26 10:31:24 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 25 Dec. There are currently
two active regions on the visible disk, 2753(S30E36) and 2754(N25,W38)
both small and inactive. Very Low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three days, 26-28 Dec. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. During 25
Dec, the solar wind speed remained near its background levels.
The total IMF (Bt) varied around 5 nT. The north-south component
of IMF, Bz, varied between +/-3 nT, mainly neutral. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mainly at background to slightly
enhanced levels for the next three days, 26-28 Dec due to weak
coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 01121122
Cocos Island 3 01111022
Darwin 3 01111122
Townsville 4 00121123
Learmonth 5 01122222
Alice Springs 3 00121122
Gingin 3 00121121
Canberra 3 01110122
Hobart 4 01221122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 13 44331212
Mawson 9 22122134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 5 Quiet
28 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels for the Australian
region on 25 Dec. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Active
levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 26-28 Dec, with a chance
of isolated Unsettled periods today, 26 Dec due to weak coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days, 26-28 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for the Australian region on 25 Dec. Moderate
MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island region local day and
night. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over most sites. For
the next three days, 26-28 Dec, mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected over the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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