[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 23 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 24 10:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 23 Dec. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disk and no active regions are expected
to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three days, 24-26 Dec. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. During 23
Dec, the solar wind speed was near its background levels, around
350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 8 nT. The
north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mainly between +/-3
nT with one brief southward excursion around 23/0948UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mainly at background to slightly
enhanced levels for the next three days, 24-26 Dec due to weak
coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 10121101
Cocos Island 1 10111000
Darwin 2 10121001
Townsville 3 11021102
Learmonth 2 11021001
Alice Springs 1 00021001
Gingin 2 10022101
Canberra 2 00122101
Hobart 2 00122101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 00022000
Casey 9 33332111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1010 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 5 Quiet
25 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels for the Australian
region on 23 Dec. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Unsettled
levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet levels for the next three days, 24-26 Dec, with a chance
of isolated Unsettled periods due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, 24-26 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to slightly depressed for the Australian region
on 23 Dec. Moderate MUFs depressions observed at Niue Island
region local day and night. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen
over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support is expected
for the next three UT days, 24-26 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 41000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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