[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 December 19 issued 2350 UT on 22 Dec 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 23 10:50:21 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 22Dec. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disk and no active regions are expected
to rotate onto the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed
ranged between 309km/s to 395km/s over the UT day. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +4nT and -3 nT.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain at background/ambient
levels for the next 2 days with the chance of becoming elevated
late in the UT day 24Dec or early 25Dec due to a high speed solar
wind stream from a southern hemisphere located negative polarity
coronal hole. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 20101011
Cocos Island 1 10100001
Darwin 2 20001012
Townsville 2 20101011
Learmonth 2 20101011
Alice Springs 2 20101002
Gingin 2 20100012
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 2 11201010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 10101000
Casey 14 45321112
Mawson 11 32221115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1021 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 5 Quiet
24 Dec 5 Quiet
25 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels for the Australian
region on 22Dec with Active to Quiet conditions observed for
Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be mostly Quiet for 23Dec-24Dec with Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 25Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for Southern Hemisphere
with Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions as well as enhanced periods.
Mostly normal ionospheric support for Northern hemisphere stations
with occasional enhanced MUFs. Similar conditions expected for
the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Equatorial
to Northern AUS regions with periods of mild MUF depressions
and enhancements. MUFs for Antarctic regions were mostly at near
predicted monthly values and depressed MUFs during local day
for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support
is expected for the next 3 days with periods of mildly depressed
MUFs for all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 56200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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