[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 14 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 15 10:31:30 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 14 Dec. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots are expected
to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three days, 15-17 Dec. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
the last 24 hours,the solar wind began the UT day at nominal
levels, around 350 Km/s, then gradually increased and is currently
around 410 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3nT-8nT. The
north-south component of IMF, Bz was mostly positive with a brief
southward excursion up to -5 nT around 14/2200UT. This minor
disturbance is most likely due to weak coronal hole effects.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near its background levels
to slightly enhanced for the next three days, 15-17 Dec due to
weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11101002
Cocos Island 1 01101001
Darwin 2 11101102
Townsville 3 20101112
Learmonth 2 11101012
Alice Springs 2 10101002
Gingin 1 01101011
Canberra 1 10200001
Hobart 2 11200002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 9 23421122
Mawson 7 42111112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1110 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 10 Quiet with possible isolated Unsettled periods.
16 Dec 5 Quiet
17 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 14 Dec was Quiet for the Australian
region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Active conditions.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
levels for the next three days, 15-17 Dec. Isolated Unsettled
periods are possible today, 15 Dec due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed compared
to the monthly predicted levels for the next three days, 15-17
Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near
predicted monthly values to moderately depressed ones on 14 Dec.
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. For the next
three days,15-17 Dec, mildly depressed to near predicted monthly
MUFs may be observed over the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 44500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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