[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 13 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 14 10:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 13 Dec. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots are expected
to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three days,14-16 Dec. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was at nominal levels,
around 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 5
nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between +/-4nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background
levels for the next three days, 14-16 Dec. Slight enhancements
may be observed on 15 Dec due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 21100001
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 2 21010101
Townsville 3 21110111
Learmonth 1 21000100
Alice Springs 1 12000001
Gingin 2 22100011
Canberra 2 12100010
Hobart 2 12110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 15 45421112
Mawson 12 44101142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1010 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 8 Quiet with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods.
16 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 13 Dec was Quiet for the Australian
region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Active conditions.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
levels for the next three days, 14-16 Dec with a chance of isolated
Unsettled periods on 15 dec due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, 14-16 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values on 13 Dec. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over
some sites. For the next three days, 14-16 Dec, mostly near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected over the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 69000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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