[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 December 19 issued 2349 UT on 12 Dec 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 13 10:49:55 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 12Dec. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disc and no confirmed Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. A weak
westerly directed CME is visible in LASCO C2 imagery from 11Dec
22UT onwards - however this is not expected to be geoeffective.
The solar wind began the UT day slightly elevated at 424km/s,
ranged between 368km/s and 451km/s and is currently 380km/s at
the time of this report. The north-south component of IMF, Bz,
fluctuated between +/-4nT with no significant sustained southward
Bz periods. Solar wind speed is expected to be at ambient levels
for the next 2 days with the chance of becoming slightly elevated
15Dec due to coronal hole effects. Very low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 3 11121011
Learmonth 3 20121111
Alice Springs 2 11111002
Gingin 3 21111011
Canberra 2 11110002
Hobart 3 11211002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11000001
Casey 12 34331113
Mawson 8 22311104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 5 Quiet
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 12Dec was Quiet for the Australian
region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Unsettled conditions.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed for 12Dec with
notable depressed Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) observed
for Southern Hemisphere and enhanced periods for Northern Hemisphere
regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for
the next 3 days with occasional moderately depressions for southern
hemisphere low to mid latitudes and enhancements at low to mid
latitudes for northern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec -34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the Australian/NZ
region for 12Dec. Depressed Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs)
observed at Equatorial, Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Notable sporadic E at observed for Equatorial and Northern AUS
regions and mostly normal HF conditions observed for Antarctic
regions. Similar levels of variable ionospheric support are expected
for the next 3 days with mildly depressed MUFs for Equatorial,
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 80300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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