[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 11 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 12 10:31:33 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for 11 Dec. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots are expected
to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three UT days,12-14 December. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed varied in the range 380-450
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 8 nT. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied mainly between +/-5nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background levels
for the next three UT days, 12-14 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 23112211
Cocos Island 3 22011200
Darwin 6 23122211
Townsville 6 23122211
Learmonth 7 32122212
Alice Springs 4 22112201
Gingin 6 32112211
Canberra 6 23112211
Hobart 6 23112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 12001110
Casey 19 55422222
Mawson 15 34222334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0210 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 5 Quiet
13 Dec 5 Quiet
14 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 11 Dec was at Quiet to Unsettled
levels for the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
Quiet to Minor Storm levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days, 12-14
December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 12-14 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near
predicted monthly values to mildly depressed ones on UT day 11
December. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. For
the next three UT days, 12-14 December, mostly near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected over the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 85500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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