[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 December 19 issued 2352 UT on 10 Dec 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 11 10:52:16 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for 10Dec. There are currently
no sunspots on the visible disc and no confirmed Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. A filament
structure located in the northwest quadrant was observed lifting
off in GONG H-alpha imagery between 16-22UT 09Dec. LASCO C2 imagery
is being analysed to determine if a westward propagating CME
observed from 02UT-11UT 10Dec has any earth directed component. The
solar wind speed was initially at ambient levels of ~350km/s
at 00UT and has steadily increased to be ~450km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, fluctuated
between -9nT and +7nT between 00UT-05UT and has since ranged
between +/-5nT with no significant sustained southward Bz periods.
Solar wind is then expected to be at ambient levels for the next
3 days. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 12120112
Cocos Island 3 12110111
Darwin 3 12110112
Townsville 4 22110112
Learmonth 4 22120112
Alice Springs 3 12110012
Gingin 4 22120012
Canberra 4 12220012
Hobart 4 12220012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 02120001
Casey 21 36521222
Mawson 11 24311233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2100 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 5 Quiet
12 Dec 5 Quiet
13 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 10Dec was at Quiet levels for
the Australian region with Quiet to Unsettled conditions for
Antarctic regions with isolated Active periods between 03UT-09UT.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet levels for
the next three days with only isolated Unsettled periods for
high latitudes expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
12 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed for 10Dec with
notable depressed Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) observed
for Southern Hemisphere and enhanced periods for Northern Hemisphere
regions. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected for
the next 1-2 days with occasional moderately depressions for
southern hemisphere at low to mid latitudes and enhancements at
low to mid latitudes for northern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the Australian/NZ
region for 10Dec. Depressed Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs)
observed at Equatorial to Southern AUS/NZ regions during local
day and slight enhancements using local night for Northern AUS
regions. Notable sporadic E observed at SWS Darwin, Townsville,
Brisbane, Norfolk Is. and Canberra stations and mostly normal HF
conditions observed for Antarctic regions. Similar levels of
variable ionospheric support are expected for the next 3 days
with mildly depressed MUFs to slight enhancements for
Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 43200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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