[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 December 19 issued 2352 UT on 09 Dec 2019

Tue Dec 10 10:52:04 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec:  Very Low

Flares: none

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 71/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Dec             11 Dec             12 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for 09Dec. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no 
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 328km/s and 365km/s 
and is currently 354km/s at the time of this report. The 
north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between -4nT and +3nT 
with only short periods of sustained southward Bz. Solar wind 
is expected to be at ambient levels for the next 3 days. 
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 
three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21101112
      Cocos Island         1   11000001
      Darwin               2   11101101
      Townsville           3   11101112
      Learmonth            3   21001112
      Alice Springs        3   21101112
      Gingin               3   21101112
      Canberra             2   11001112
      Hobart               3   21101112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   11000101
      Casey                9   33322122
      Mawson              14   54111114

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg       8
           Planetary            8                        

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       2
           Planetary            2   0000 0011     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Dec     5    Quiet
11 Dec     5    Quiet
12 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 09Dec was at Quiet levels for 
the Australian region and mostly Quiet with isolated Unsettled 
periods for Antarctic regions. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly Quiet levels for the next three days with only isolated 
Unsettled periods for high latitudes expected.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with minor depressed periods for low latitudes 
09Dec. Near predicted monthly values are expected for MUF for 
the next 3 days with only occasional mild to moderately depressions 
for low to mid latitudes expected.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Dec   -25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values
12 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with only minor depressed periods for Equatorial 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Notable sporadic E observed for 
Northern AUS and Southern AUS stations and mostly normal HF conditions 
observed for Antarctic regions. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support are expected for the next 3 days with MUFs ranging from 
near predicted monthly values to Moderately depressed for Equatorial, 
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    60100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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