[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 08 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 9 10:31:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 08 December.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
09-11 December. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed varied mostly between 350 to 390 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
varied between 2 nT and 5 nT. The north-south component of IMF,
Bz, varied between -4 nT and +4 nT, staying continuously southwards
from 1700 UT to 2100 UT. The solar wind density ranged from 3
to 9 ppcc. Due to the effect of a coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere, the solar wind speed may show slight enhancements
on UT day 09 December. Solar wind is then expected to decline
to normal values through UT day, 10 December and then stay at
nominal levels on 11 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11101112
Cocos Island 1 10101011
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 3 11101112
Learmonth 2 10111111
Alice Springs 2 11101012
Gingin 2 10101111
Canberra 2 11100112
Hobart 2 11200012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11100001
Casey 11 33422122
Mawson 14 22313235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
10 Dec 5 Quiet
11 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels in the Australian
region and mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods in the
Antarctic regions on UT day 08 December. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT
days, 09-11 December with the possibility of some unsettled periods
on 09 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to moderately depressed on UT day 08 December.
Strong sporadic E were observed at mid and high latitudes. Mildly
to moderately depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected
for the next three UT days, 09-11 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
35%
10 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
11 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to moderately depressed on UT day 08 December.
Strong sporadic E were observed at mid and high latitudes. Mildly
to moderately depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected
over the Australian region during UT days, 09-11 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 55200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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