[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 15 Dec 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 16 10:31:32 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 15 Dec. There are currently 
no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots are expected 
to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three days, 16-18 Dec. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During 
15 Dec, the solar wind speed varied in the range 350-420 km/s. 
The total IMF (Bt) varied mainly between 3 nT and 8 nT. The north-south 
component of IMF (Bz) varied between +/-5 nT. For the next two 
days, 16-17 Dec, the solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly 
at its nominal levels. An expected increase in solar speed for 
18 Dec due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind 
stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Mostly Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21101012
      Cocos Island         2   11101012
      Darwin               3   22101012
      Townsville           5   22201023
      Learmonth            3   21101012
      Alice Springs        3   21101012
      Gingin               4   21100023
      Hobart               4   22200022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   21100012
      Casey               20   54431134
      Mawson              14   43211125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec     5    Quiet
17 Dec     5    Quiet
18 Dec    20    Quiet to Active with a slight chance of an Isolated 
                Minor Storm period.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 15 Dec was mostly Quiet for 
the Australian region with some isolated Unsettled periods. The 
Antarctic region observed isolated Minor Storm periods. During 
UT days 16-17 Dec, global geomagnetic activity is expected to 
be mostly at Quiet levels. On UT day 18 Dec, geomagnetic activity 
is expected to rise to Unsettled and Active levels due to coronal 
hole effects, with a slight chance of an Isolated Minor Storm 
period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Dec      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions may be observed compared 
to the monthly predicted levels for the next three days, 16-18 
Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Dec   -30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -30
Dec      -16
Jan      -17

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
17 Dec   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
18 Dec   -35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near 
predicted monthly values to mildly depressed ones on 15 Dec. 
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. Minor to Moderate 
MUFs depressions may be observed compared to the monthly predicted 
levels for the next three days, 16-18 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 361 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    55200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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