[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 01 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 2 10:31:37 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 01 December.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 02-04
December. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 01 December, the solar wind speed
was near its background levels, varying in the range 350-390
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 5 nT. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied between -3 nT and +2 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain mostly near its background levels
for the next three UT days, 02-04 December. Mild enhancements
are possible on 03-04 December due to weak coronal hole effects.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
01/0020UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11101112
Cocos Island 2 21100111
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 3 11111121
Learmonth 4 21111112
Alice Springs 2 11101102
Gingin 3 21101112
Canberra 2 10101012
Hobart 3 11101112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 21001011
Casey 9 33321122
Mawson 11 22122125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 5 Quiet
03 Dec 7 Quiet
04 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 01 December, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT
days, 02-04 December. During 03-04 December, unsettled periods
are possible due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 02-04 December. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions may be observed compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to low levels of solar ionising flux.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
03 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
04 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied mostly between
near predicted monthly values and mildly to moderately depressed
ones on UT day 01 December. The depressions were due to low levels
of solar ionising flux. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over
all the sites. For the next three UT days, 02-04 December, mildly
depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected over the
Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 50200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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