[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 30 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 1 10:31:46 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 30 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 01-03
December. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 30 November, the solar wind speed
was near its background to mildly elevated levels, varying in
the range 350-400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT
and 7 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between
-2 nT and 6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly
near its background levels for the next three UT days, 01-03
December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22221122
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 5 22121122
Alice Springs 5 22121122
Gingin 4 21111122
Canberra 6 22212122
Hobart 5 12212122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 11102121
Casey 13 34432122
Mawson 13 42112125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1001 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 5 Quiet
02 Dec 5 Quiet
03 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 30 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT
days, 01-03 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 01-03 December. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions may be observed compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of solar ionising flux.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov -36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values
02 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near
predicted monthly values to mildly and moderately depressed ones
on UT day 30 November. The depressions were due to very low levels
of solar ionising flux. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over
all the sites. For the next three UT days, 01-03 December, mildly
depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected over the
Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30e+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 43400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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