[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 December 19 issued 2331 UT on 02 Dec 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 3 10:31:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 02 December.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 03-05
December. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 320-350
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 5 nT. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz, varied between -3 nT and +6 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain mostly near its background levels
for the next three UT days, 03-05 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 2 21100011
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 1 11000001
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 1 12100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 6 33310011
Mawson 4 32100012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 5 Quiet
04 Dec 5 Quiet
05 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 02 December, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels in the Australian and Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next
three UT days, 03-05 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 03-05 December. Minor to moderate MUF
depressions may be observed compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to low levels of solar ionising flux.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec -41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -30
Dec -16
Jan -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec -30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied mostly between
near predicted monthly values and mildly to moderately depressed
ones on UT day 02 December. The depressions were due to low levels
of solar ionising flux. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over
some sites. For the next three UT days, 03-05 December, mildly
depressed to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected over the
Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 43600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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