[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 26 Aug 2019

Tue Aug 27 09:31:40 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 26 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next three UT days, 27-29 August. There were 
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 26 August, the solar wind speed was near its 
background levels, 310-350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 
2 nT and 7 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
mostly between +/-5 nT. On UT day 27 August, the solar wind speed 
is expected to increase to moderate and strong levels due to 
high speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal 
hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11021111
      Cocos Island         3   11-20111
      Darwin               3   11121111
      Townsville           3   11121111
      Learmonth            3   11021112
      Alice Springs        3   11021111
      Culgoora             4   01131111
      Gingin               3   10021112
      Canberra             2   00031001
      Launceston           5   11132111
      Hobart               3   11031001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     6   00052000
      Casey                5   22222012
      Mawson              19   41132136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1220 1112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug    12    Unsettled
28 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 26 August, mostly Quiet levels of geomagnetic 
activity were recorded in the Australian region and in Antarctica. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled 
levels on UT day 27 August due to the predicted arrival of the 
corotating interaction region and high speed solar wind streams 
associated with a recurrent coronal hole. Isolated Active periods 
are possible on 27 August.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 27-29 August.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Aug    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 26 August. Mild to moderate enhancements 
were observed across Southern Australian regions during local 
night and after local dawn. Sporadic E occurrences were observed 
over all sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly levels for UT days 27-29 August.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    26200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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