[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 27 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 28 09:31:35 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 27 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next three UT days, 28-30 August. There were 
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. At the beginning of UT day 27 August, the solar wind 
speed was near its background levels; then it was enhanced, the 
maximum speed being around 550 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged 
between 3 nT and 12 nT, the highest values being observed before 
0415 UT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied mostly 
between +11 nT and -8 nT. On UT day 28 August, the solar wind 
speed is expected to remain moderately elevated due to high speed 
solar wind streams associated with the recurrent coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23232121
      Cocos Island         6   23231110
      Darwin              10   34231121
      Townsville           8   33232120
      Learmonth           10   34232120
      Alice Springs        9   33232121
      Culgoora             8   23232121
      Gingin               9   23232230
      Canberra             6   23132110
      Launceston          10   24232221
      Hobart               8   23232121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    11   23153100
      Casey               13   44332121
      Mawson              20   45433322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   NA     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Aug     7    Quiet
30 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 27 August, mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels 
of geomagnetic activity were recorded in the Australian region 
in the first half of the day, then geomagnetic activity decreased 
to mostly Quiet levels. In Antarctica, geomagnetic activity reached 
Active and Minor Storm levels in the first half of the day, then 
it decreased to Quiet and Unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain mostly at Quiet levels during 
the next three UT days, 28-30 August. Isolated Unsettled to Active 
periods are possible on 28 August due to high speed solar wind 
streams associated with the recurrent coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 28-30 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 27 August. Mild enhancements were 
observed across Southern Australian regions during local night. 
Sporadic E occurrences were observed over all sites. MUFs are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly levels for UT days 
28-30 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   NA
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  NA
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 323 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    25600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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