[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 20 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 21 09:31:30 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 20 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 21-23 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 20 August, the solar wind speed varied between
320 and 420 km/s, generally exhibiting an increasing trend. The
mildly elevated solar wind is in response to a small coronal
hole. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3 to 9 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) reached -6 nT at 20/0130 UT but varied
mostly between -3 and +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mainly at background to slightly enhanced levels for the
next three UT days, 21-23 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12101101
Darwin 3 12201101
Townsville 4 22211101
Learmonth 2 11111101
Alice Springs 2 12101101
Gingin 2 11101102
Canberra 1 01101000
Launceston 3 12101111
Hobart 1 01101101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 01000001
Casey 8 34301101
Mawson 7 43101112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1200 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug 7 Quiet
23 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 20 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
Quiet to Active levels were observed. During the next three UT
days, 21-23 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be mostly at Quiet levels, with Unsettled periods possible for
21 August due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days,21-23 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced ones during
UT day 20 August. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted
monthly levels for UT days 21-23 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 28800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list