[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 19 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 20 09:31:37 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 19 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 20-22 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 19 August, the solar wind speed was near its
background levels. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-5
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between
-3 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mainly
at background level for the next three UT days, 20-22 August,
with slight enhancements possible for 20-21 August due to the
passage of a weak coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 2 11111100
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 11110000
Gingin 1 10110100
Canberra 0 01010000
Launceston 1 11110000
Hobart 1 11010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 23210001
Mawson 5 33211001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3221 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 19 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed. During the next three
UT days, 20-22 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels, with Unsettled periods possible
for 20-21 August due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days,20-22 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced ones during
UT day 19 August. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted
monthly levels for UT days 20-22 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 40000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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