[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 19 Aug 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 20 09:31:37 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 19 August. 
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is 
expected for the next three UT days, 20-22 August. There were 
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 19 August, the solar wind speed was near its 
background levels. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-5 
nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between 
-3 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain mainly 
at background level for the next three UT days, 20-22 August, 
with slight enhancements possible for 20-21 August due to the 
passage of a weak coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Cocos Island         0   01100000
      Darwin               1   11101001
      Townsville           2   11111100
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Alice Springs        1   11110000
      Gingin               1   10110100
      Canberra             0   01010000
      Launceston           1   11110000
      Hobart               1   11010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                4   23210001
      Mawson               5   33211001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   3221 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 19 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity 
were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, 
Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed. During the next three 
UT days, 20-22 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at Quiet levels, with Unsettled periods possible 
for 20-21 August due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days,20-22 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Aug    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      -2
Aug      -13
Sep      -15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced ones during 
UT day 19 August. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed 
over some sites. MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted 
monthly levels for UT days 20-22 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    40000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list