[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 18 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 19 09:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 18 August.
The solar disk, visible from the Earthside, is spotless. Very
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 19-21
August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 18 August, the solar wind speed
varied mostly between 350 and 370 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between
2 nT and 9 nT and the north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied
in the range -4.5/+3.5 nT on this day. The solar wind particle
density varied between 3.5 ppcc and 12 ppcc during this period.
The solar wind stream is expected to stay mostly at the normal
levels for the next 3 UT days (19-21 August) with some possibility
of slight strengthenings due to the possible weak effect of a
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 12210100
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 2 12200100
Townsville 3 22210101
Learmonth 4 22210201
Alice Springs 2 12200100
Gingin 4 12210211
Canberra 1 11110000
Launceston 3 12210101
Hobart 2 12110100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 01110000
Casey 7 33310211
Mawson 22 43412236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
20 Aug 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
21 Aug 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 18 August. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels with some possibility
of isolated unsettled periods for the next three UT days, 19-21
August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 18 August. Mild MUF enhancements
as well as depressions were also observed on some low- and mid-latitude
locations. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 19-21 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly
near predicted monthly values across the Australian region on
UT day 18 August. Mild MUF enhancements as well as depressions
were also observed. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over
several sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to
stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days, 19-21 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 43700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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