[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 17 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 18 09:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 17 August.
The solar disk, visible from the Earthside, is spotless. Very
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 18-20
August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 17 August, the solar wind speed
first showed a gradual decrease from 365 km/s to 320 km/s by
around 17:30 UT and then gradually increased to 360 km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3.8 nT and 6.8 nT and the
north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly in the range
-3/+2 nT on this day. The solar wind particle density stayed
mostly between 4 ppcc and 6 ppcc during this period. The solar
wind stream is expected to stay mostly at the normal levels for
the next 3 UT days (18-20 August) with some possibility of slight
strengthenings on 19 and 20 August due to the possible weak effect
of a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11110100
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 2 11110101
Townsville 3 12110111
Learmonth 2 01210100
Alice Springs 1 02100000
Gingin 1 01110100
Canberra 1 01110000
Launceston 2 12111100
Hobart 1 11110100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 5 22321101
Mawson 9 24223112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1112 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 5 Quiet
19 Aug 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
20 Aug 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 17 August. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next
three UT days, 18-20 August with a small possibility of isolated
unsettled periods on 19 and 20 August due to the effect of coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 17 August. Mild MUF enhancements
as well as depressions were also observed on some low- and mid-latitude
locations. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 18-20 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug -4 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly
near predicted monthly values across the Australian region on
UT day 17 August. Mild MUF enhancements as well as depressions
were also observed. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over
several sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to
stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days, 18-20 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list