[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 16 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 17 09:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 16 August.
The solar disk, visible from the Earthside, is spotless. Very
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 17-19
August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 16 August, the solar wind speed
showed a gradual decrease from 440 km/s to 370 km/s, the total
IMF (Bt) between 1 nT and 4.3 nT. The north-south component of
IMF, Bz, varied mostly in the range -3/+3 nT until 0800 UT and
then stayed close to the normal value on this day. The solar
wind particle density stayed mostly between 2 ppcc and 6 ppcc
during this period. The solar wind stream is expected to gradually
come down to the normal levels though UT day 17 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11222200
Cocos Island 3 12221100
Darwin 4 11222200
Townsville 4 11222200
Learmonth 5 22222210
Alice Springs 4 11222200
Gingin 4 11222210
Canberra 2 00122100
Launceston 5 12222211
Hobart 3 01222200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 11131100
Casey 6 23222210
Mawson 16 43232125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0010 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 5 Quiet
18 Aug 5 Quiet
19 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 16 August. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next
three UT days, 16-18 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 16 August. Mild MUF enhancements
as well as depressions were also observed on some low- and mid-latitude
locations. MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 17-19 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly
near predicted monthly values across the Australian region on
UT day 16 August. Mild MUF enhancements as well as depressions
were also observed. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over
several sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to
stay mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three
UT days, 17-19 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 75600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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