[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 21 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 22 09:31:41 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 21 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 22-24 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 21 August, the solar wind speed varied between
420 and 350 km/s, exhibiting a declining trend. The total IMF
(Bt) varied in the range 2 to 5 nT. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) was mostly neutral. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mainly at background levels for the next three UT days,
22-24 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11101100
Cocos Island 2 21110110
Darwin 2 11200111
Townsville 3 11211111
Learmonth 2 11211100
Alice Springs 1 01100100
Gingin 1 11101100
Canberra 1 01101000
Launceston 2 11102101
Hobart 2 01102100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 01000---
Casey 5 23220101
Mawson 11 43321320
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 1200 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 7 Mostly Quiet
23 Aug 5 Quiet
24 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 21 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
Quiet to Active levels were observed. During the next three UT
days, 22-24 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected to
be mostly at Quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 22-24 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced ones during
UT day 21 August. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. MUFs are expected to range mostly near predicted
monthly levels for UT days 22-24 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 86700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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