[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 13 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 14 09:31:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 13 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. There were no Earth-directed
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day
13 August, the solar wind speed ranged mostly between 430 km/s
and 460 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 1 nT and 7 nT, IMF north-south
component, Bz, varied in the range -5/+5 nT and the solar wind
particle density varied between 3 ppcc and 6 ppcc. Very Low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 14-16 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22122211
Cocos Island 3 21021200
Darwin 5 22122201
Townsville 5 22122211
Learmonth 5 22122211
Alice Springs 4 22022201
Culgoora 5 22122211
Gingin 5 22121211
Canberra 4 21121211
Launceston 7 22132212
Hobart 3 11021211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 11031211
Casey 9 33222312
Mawson 21 43223544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1111 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 5 Quiet
15 Aug 5 Quiet
16 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 13 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. During the next three
UT days, 14-16 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels with a small chance of isolated
unsettled periods on 14 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 13 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild MUF enhancements
as well as depressions were also observed in some low- and mid-latitude
regions. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over several sites.
MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 14-16 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug -4 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug -4 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug -4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 13 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Mild MUF enhancements as well as depressions were also
observed. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over several sites.
MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay mostly near
the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 14-16
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 58100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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