[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 12 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 13 09:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 12 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 13-15 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 12 August, the solar wind speed ranged between
375 km/s and 390 km/s until around 0800 UT and then gradually
increased to 462 km/s by 0949 UT. Solar wind speed stayed between
450 and and 470 km/s for most parts of the remaining day. The
total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and 7 nT. The IMF north-south
component, Bz, varied in the range -4/+6 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11112011
Cocos Island 2 12111001
Darwin 4 11212111
Townsville 4 12122111
Learmonth 4 11222111
Alice Springs 3 12112001
Culgoora 3 11112011
Gingin 1 11111000
Canberra 1 01111001
Launceston 4 12112111
Hobart 1 01111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22221011
Mawson 18 42223116
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1112 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
14 Aug 5 Quiet
15 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 12 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. During the next three
UT days, 13-15 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 12 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild MUF enhancements
as well as depressions were also observed in some low- and mid-latitude
regions. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over several sites.
MUFs are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 13-15 August. However, mild to moderate
depressions are possible for high-latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug -4 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug -2 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 12 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Mild MUF enhancements as well as depressions were also
observed, mainly in the northern Australian regions. Sporadic
E occurrences were observed over several sites. MUFs in the Australian
regions are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly
values for the next three UT days, 13-15 August. However, mild
to moderate depressions are possible for high-latitude regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 63100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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