[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 14 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 15 09:31:34 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 14 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 15-17 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 14 August, the solar wind speed ranged mostly
between 430 km/s and 460 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) between 1 nT
and 6 nT and IMF north-south component, Bz, varied in the range
-3/+3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline
towards its nominal level over the next two UT days (15-16 August).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11121000
Cocos Island 1 11011000
Darwin 2 11121001
Townsville 3 21121001
Learmonth 2 11021000
Alice Springs 2 01121000
Culgoora 2 11121000
Gingin 2 11121000
Canberra 3 11131000
Launceston 4 21132000
Hobart 3 11131000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 10120000
Casey 5 23222100
Mawson 9 32222114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2213 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 5 Quiet
16 Aug 5 Quiet
17 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 14 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed. During the next
three UT days, 15-17 August, global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 15-17 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 14 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Mild MUF enhancements as well as depressions were also
observed. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over several sites.
MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay mostly near
the predicted monthly values for the next three UT days, 15-17
August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 82300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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