[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 09 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 10 09:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 09 August.
There are two numbered regions on the visible solar disk, AR
2746 and AR 2747. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three UT days, 10-12 August. There were no Earth-directed
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day
09 August, the solar wind speed ranged between 470 km/s and 640
km/s; it was mostly increasing since 09/1650 UT. The total IMF
(Bt) varied between 4 nT and 7 nT. The IMF north-south component,
Bz, varied in the range -5/+5 nT without significant periods
of negative Bz. During to the next UT day, 10 August, the solar
wind speed is expected to be elevated due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 01122211
Cocos Island 3 01112211
Darwin 4 11122211
Townsville 5 11222212
Learmonth 5 01222222
Alice Springs 3 01121211
Culgoora 4 11122112
Gingin 4 01121221
Canberra 3 01122111
Launceston 6 01232221
Hobart 4 01132111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 00132111
Casey 14 23322522
Mawson 11 12432223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2221 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 09 August, mostly Quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity were recorded in the Australian region. In Antarctic
region, mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed. During
the next three UT days, 10-12 August, global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels. Active
periods are possible for 10-11 August due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 10-12 August. Mildly to moderately
depressed maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are possible for
high-latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 09 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Mild enhancements were also observed across Northern
Australian Region during local night. Sporadic E occurrences
were observed over all sites. MUFs in the Australian regions
are expected to stay mostly near the predicted monthly values
for the next three UT days, 10-12 August. However, mild to moderate
depressions are possible for high-latitude regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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