[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 10 Aug 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 11 09:31:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 10 August.
The visible solar disk is spotless. Very Low solar activity is
expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 August. There were
no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 10 August, the solar wind speed reached a
maximum of 687 km/s at 10/0041 UT then began to gradually decrease
reaching a minimum of 460 km/s at 10/1644 UT. The solar wind
is currently varying between 460 and 540 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied between 1 nT and 5 nT. The IMF north-south component,
Bz, varied in the range -5/+3 nT and was mainly negative. The
solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on the next UT day,
11 August, due to coronal hole effects, then begin to weaken
on 12 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 21121011
Cocos Island 2 11021001
Darwin 3 12121001
Townsville 5 21221112
Learmonth 3 21121002
Alice Springs 2 11120001
Culgoora 3 11220011
Gingin 5 21122112
Canberra 3 21220011
Launceston 4 21221111
Hobart 4 21221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 11230000
Casey 8 33221212
Mawson 22 45332135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 14 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 59 (Unsettled)
Canberra 55 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1112 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 7 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 10 August, Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity
were recorded in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region,
mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed, with Mawson experiencing
Active to Minor Storm levels. During the next two UT days, 11-12
August, global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with Active periods possible for
11 August due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic activity should
return to mainly Quiet levels on 13 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 August. Mildly to moderately
depressed maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are possible for
high-latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 10 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Mild enhancements were also observed across most regions
during local night. Sporadic E occurrences were observed over
all sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay
mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three UT
days, 11-13 August. However, mild to moderate depressions are
possible for high-latitude regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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