[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 08 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 9 09:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 08 August.
There are two numbered regions on the visible solar disk, AR
2746 and AR 2747. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next 3 UT days, 09-11 August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 08 August,
the solar wind speed ranged between 420 km/s and 560 km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) varied between 4 nT and 6 nT. From 8/1150 UT to
8/1240 UT the solar wind speed increased from 460 km/s to 560
km/s; the IMF north-south component, Bz, was negative during
this period and reached -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be moderately elevated during the next UT day, 09 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 12224211
Cocos Island 4 02213100
Darwin 5 12113111
Townsville 8 12224211
Learmonth 7 12224210
Alice Springs 7 02224210
Culgoora 5 11123211
Gingin 6 12223220
Canberra 3 01113101
Launceston 7 12124211
Hobart 6 11114211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 011-----
Casey 9 23333111
Mawson 16 43432224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2311 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 7 Quiet
10 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 08 August, mostly Quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity were recorded in the Australian region. There was one
isolated period when geomagnetic activity reached active levels,
this corresponded with an increase in the solar wind speed and
negative Bz, which reached -6 nT. In Antarctic region, Quiet
to Active levels were observed. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at Quiet levels during UT day 09 August.
On 10-11 August, Unsettled levels and isolated active periods
are possible due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 09-11 August. Mildly to moderately depressed
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are possible for high-latitude
regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 08 August, maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
stayed mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region. Mild enhancements were also observed during local night.
Sporadic E occurrences were observed over all sites. MUFs in
the Australian regions are expected to stay mostly near the predicted
monthly values for the next three UT days, 09-11 August. However,
mild to moderate depressions are possible for high-latitude regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 511 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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