[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 August 19 issued 2331 UT on 05 Aug 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 6 09:31:42 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 05 August.
There is one numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR 2746.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 06-08
August. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 05 August, the solar wind speed
has increased from 310 km/s to 710 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
between 2 nT to 23 nT, the maximum value being reached near 05/0900
UT due to arrival of the corotating interaction region associated
with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of -19 nT near 05/0700
UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated during
the next three UT days, 6-8 August, due to high speed solar wind
streams associated with a recurrent trans-equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 25 13456322
Cocos Island 14 13344322
Darwin 16 13345321
Townsville 21 13455322
Learmonth 22 13355432
Alice Springs 21 13455322
Culgoora 25 13456322
Gingin 23 03455432
Canberra 25 13456322
Launceston 37 03467323
Hobart 35 02467322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 72 02678633
Casey 21 24344523
Mawson 61 24665476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 37
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1120 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 20 Active
07 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
08 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels to Major Storm levels of geomagnetic
activity were recorded in the Australian and Antarctic region
on UT day 05 August due to arrival of the corotating interaction
region and high speed solar wind streams associated with a recurrent
trans-equatorial coronal hole. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to decrease to Unsettled to Minor Storm levels on UT
day 06 August as the coronal hole effects wane. Then the conditions
are expected decrease to Quiet to Unsettled levels by UT day
08 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days in response to the disturbed geomagnetic
conditions associated with the trans-equatorial coronal hole.
Mildly to moderately depressed maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
are expected for high to mid latitudes on UT day 6 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul -2
Aug -13
Sep -15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug -10 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF propagation conditions were observed during
UT day 5 August. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) stayed mostly
near predicted monthly values across the Southern Australian
region. Moderate enhancements during the local night and moderate
depressions during local day were observed across Northern Australian
Region. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over
some sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are expected to stay
mostly near the predicted monthly values for the next three UT
days, 06-08 August. However, mild to moderate depressions are
likely for Southern Australian Region and Antarctica.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 32900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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